You’re pretty much on key. You’ve just got to stress that crawling before walking doesn’t only apply to babies, it applies to programmers (and a lot of other professions), too. If a programmer has NOT done anything with a console (Tic-Tac-Toe, Small Text-Based RPG) and is not comfortable with basic loops, data structures/types, and flow of execution, do not just jump into 2D quite yet. Same goes with 3D. If a person has never done anything with 2D, jumping in 3D is like going to war without a weapon.

For those that feel comfortable with programming on a basic (console) level, then using SDL or Allegro to build a 2D game is the perfect route to go. Create a clone of some sort of a game, or try to create an original idea.

When you at least have one or two 2D games pumped out, then I would jump into using OpenGL or DirectX to either create a 2D game using some of the features that those libraries provide. Or, if they feel ambitious, start with a very basic 3D game.

Creating a small game by yourself is far from impossible. It just takes dedication and the desire to do it. Jump over to GameDev.NET to get inspiration. Or look at some of the people who tossed their game into the IGF. I just came across a game called Aquaria the other day (Winner of the 07 IGF), and it was made by a Programmer, Artist, and a person to do voice overs.

If programmer can get the technology and game systems in place, finding somebody to jazz up the programmer art will be 10x easier. Artists need projects, too, but they don’t want to jump into an empty hole. So give them something, and somebody is likely to bite.

Anyway! Just my perspective!